Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model

A study of the effects of expectations and central bank credibility on the economy's dynamic transition path during a disinflation. Using a version of the Fuhrer-Moore model, it compares simulations under different specifications that vary according to the way expectations are formed and the degree of central bank credibility.Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance) ; Business cycles

Unified Halo-Independent Formalism From Convex Hulls for Direct Dark Matter Searches

Using the Fenchel-Eggleston theorem for convex hulls (an extension of the Caratheodory theorem), we prove that any likelihood can be maximized by either a dark matter 1- speed distribution $F(v)$ in Earth's frame or 2- Galactic velocity distribution $f^{\rm gal}(\vec{u})$, consisting of a sum of delta functions. The former case applies only to time-averaged rate measurements and the maximum number of delta functions is $({\mathcal N}-1)$, where ${\mathcal N}$ is the total number of data entries. The second case applies to any harmonic expansion coefficient of the time-dependent rate and the maximum number of terms is ${\mathcal N}$. Using time-averaged rates, the aforementioned form of $F(v)$ results in a piecewise constant unmodulated halo function $\tilde\eta^0_{BF}(v_{\rm min})$ (which is an integral of the speed distribution) with at most $({\mathcal N}-1)$ downward steps. The authors had previously proven this result for likelihoods comprised of at least one extended likelihood, and found the best-fit halo function to be unique. This uniqueness, however, cannot be guaranteed in the more general analysis applied to arbitrary likelihoods. Thus we introduce a method for determining whether there exists a unique best-fit halo function, and provide a procedure for constructing either a pointwise confidence band, if the best-fit halo function is unique, or a degeneracy band, if it is not. Using measurements of modulation amplitudes, the aforementioned form of $f^{\rm gal}(\vec{u})$, which is a sum of Galactic streams, yields a periodic time-dependent halo function $\tilde\eta_{BF}(v_{\rm min}, t)$ which at any fixed time is a piecewise constant function of $v_{\rm min}$ with at most ${\mathcal N}$ downward steps. In this case, we explain how to construct pointwise confidence and degeneracy bands from the time-averaged halo function. Finally, we show that requiring an isotropic ...Comment: v2: Published version. Text altered, conclusions unchanged. v1: 30 pages, 7 figure

Assessing Compatibility of Direct Detection Data: Halo-Independent Global Likelihood Analyses

We present two different halo-independent methods to assess the compatibility of several direct dark matter detection data sets for a given dark matter model using a global likelihood consisting of at least one extended likelihood and an arbitrary number of Gaussian or Poisson likelihoods. In the first method we find the global best fit halo function (we prove that it is a unique piecewise constant function with a number of down steps smaller than or equal to a maximum number that we compute) and construct a two-sided pointwise confidence band at any desired confidence level, which can then be compared with those derived from the extended likelihood alone to assess the joint compatibility of the data. In the second method we define a "constrained parameter goodness-of-fit" test statistic, whose $p$-value we then use to define a "plausibility region" (e.g. where $p \geq 10\%$). For any halo function not entirely contained within the plausibility region, the level of compatibility of the data is very low (e.g. $p < 10 \%$). We illustrate these methods by applying them to CDMS-II-Si and SuperCDMS data, assuming dark matter particles with elastic spin-independent isospin-conserving interactions or exothermic spin-independent isospin-violating interactions.Comment: 31 pages, 6 figures. V2: Modified several paragraphs to improve clarify. Modified Fig. 5 and added Fig. 6 to further illustrate methods of Section 5. Added proof of uniqueness of best fit halo function in Appendix

Surface temperatures and temperature gradient features of the US Gulf Coast waters

Satellite thermal infrared data on the Gulf of Mexico show that a seasonal cycle exists in the horizontal surface temperature structure. In the fall, the surface temperatures of both coastal and deep waters are nearly uniform. With the onset of winter, atmospheric cold fronts, which are accompanied by dry, low temperature air and strong winds, draw heat from the sea. A band of cooler water forming on the inner shelf expands, until a thermal front develops seaward along the shelf break between the cold shelf waters and the warmer deep waters of the Gulf. Digital analysis of the satellite data was carried out in an interactive mode using a minicomputer and software. A time series of temperature profiles illustrates the temporal and spatial changes in the sea-surface temperature field

[1,1′-Bis(diphenyl­phosphino)ferrocene]carbon­yl[dihydro­bis(pyrazol-1-yl)borato]hydridoruthenium(II) acetone solvate

In the title compound, [FeRu(C17H14P)2(C6H8BN4)H(CO)]·C3H6O, the RuII ion is coordinated in a distorted octa­hedral environment involving a hydride ligand, a carbonyl ligand and two bidentate ligands. Of the two bidentate ligands, the bulky 1,1′-bis­(diphenyl­phosphino)ferrocene (dppf) ligand chelates with a larger bite angle of 101.90 (2)°, whereas the bite angle of the [H2Bpz2]− ligand (pz = pyrazol­yl) is 85.67 (7)°. The latter ligand creates an RuN4B six-membered ring with a boat conformation, which puckers towards the site of the small hydride ligand. The hydride ligand is cis with respect to the carbonyl ligand and trans to one of the P atoms of the dppf ligand. In the crystal structure, there are weak inter­molecular C—H⋯O hydrogen bonds between complex mol­ecules and acetone solvent mol­ecules

(WP 2023-05) Measuring the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools under Adaptive Learning

We compare the economic effects of forward guidance and quantitative easing utilizing the four-equation New Keynesian model of Sims, Wu, and Zhang (2023) with agents forming expectations via an adaptive learning rule. The results indicate forward guidance can have a greater influence on macroeconomic variables compared to quantitative easing, suggesting that forward guidance may have contributed to the high inflation rate after the COVID-19 related recession. Adaptive learning agents estimate a higher effect of forward guidance on the economy leading to a greater impact on expectations, and thus, contemporaneous inflation. However, the performance gap between forward guidance and quantitative easing can change. If quantitative easing includes anticipated shocks, more households finance consumption through long-term borrowing, and the central bank provides a greater percentage of liquidity in the long-term borrowing market, the performance of quantitative easing can increase, and at times, outperform forward guidance

Data-Discriminants of Likelihood Equations

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a fundamental computational problem in statistics. The problem is to maximize the likelihood function with respect to given data on a statistical model. An algebraic approach to this problem is to solve a very structured parameterized polynomial system called likelihood equations. For general choices of data, the number of complex solutions to the likelihood equations is finite and called the ML-degree of the model. The only solutions to the likelihood equations that are statistically meaningful are the real/positive solutions. However, the number of real/positive solutions is not characterized by the ML-degree. We use discriminants to classify data according to the number of real/positive solutions of the likelihood equations. We call these discriminants data-discriminants (DD). We develop a probabilistic algorithm for computing DDs. Experimental results show that, for the benchmarks we have tried, the probabilistic algorithm is more efficient than the standard elimination algorithm. Based on the computational results, we discuss the real root classification problem for the 3 by 3 symmetric matrix~model.Comment: 2 table